每日国际金融市场分析（中英文对照）

今日汇评

昨日，因希腊成功发行了50亿欧元的7年期公债，致使希腊经济复苏步伐加快，高风险资产的需求受阻，美元兑日元走跌。今日，因市场预期日本投资者在本财年结束（周二）之前会将海外收入进行大规模转换，美元兑日元上扬。日本释放的失业报告显示，失业率继续维持4.9%不变，该数据表明日本坎坷的经济复苏之路已经遏制住了通货紧缩压力。日本工业生产数据月比下滑0.9%，前值为上升2.7%，投资者将其归因于该数据是对1月份数据的直接反应和中国农历新年假期减少了对日本市场的出口量。消极数据增加了日本央行决策者面临的挑战，因为他们之前曾表示，伴随者消费者物价的持续下降，经济增长的预期或将符合或超出他们的预期。如果没有明确的证据表明，日本经济的复苏正在下滑，则日本央行下周极有可能会进一步增加流动性注入。

澳元兑美元继续昨日的牛市势头，因为投资者一直认为经济增长的加速必将促使澳洲联储上调利率。澳大利亚释放的最新报告显示，2月住房营建许可增长了5.9%（预期是2%），为三个月以来的首次上扬。利好数据增加了住房营建许可将有助于提振澳大利亚今年经济复苏的预期，也刺激了澳洲联储上调基准利率的可能性。因此纽元兑美元已经上涨至一周以来的最高点。纽元兑美元的交易价格为0.7095，而澳元兑美元的交易价格为0.9172，上涨了1.5%，增幅为2月16日以来的最高。据相关报道称，明日即将释放的2月零售销售额预期值为上涨0.3%，而住房营建许可将上涨2.1%，因此在确切的数据出来之前，澳元兑美元的下跌幅度是极为有限的。澳洲联储称其政策行动需将住房贷款利率的增长幅度高于基准利率增长幅度的因素考虑进去，也就是说需要将利率的增长幅度回归到正常的水平上来。

欧元兑美元的报价靠近一周以来的最低，因为有迹象显示全球经济的持续复苏拖累了美元作为避险货币的买进量。尽管美国释放了有所好转的财经数据，但欧元兑美元仍旧继续下滑，从原来的高点一度下滑至1.3475左右。因缺乏反弹突破20日移动平均线的实力，该货币对最后只能围绕1.3584窄幅震荡。因投资者一直在权衡未来的政策前景，这种窄幅震荡模式自上周以来就一直在持续。自积极的消费者信心指数和商业信心指数公布之后，投资者的关注焦点目前已经转移到本周三的即将公布的欧盟3月份消费者物价指数，预计该项数据的终值将是意外上扬。欧洲央行理事会成员诺沃特尼表示，欧洲央行目前正在讨论退出战略，并没有看到任何因欧盟援助希腊或国际货币基金组织介入希腊而产生任何的问题。诺沃特尼还表示，欧盟对希腊的援助计划是积极的，因此将会欧元兑美元带来很大的提振。

The USDJPY gained on speculation Japanese exporters are converting overseas revenue before the fiscal year ends tomorrow after falling yesterday as economic pace picked up on Greek issue of 7 year bonds worth EUR 5 Billion stoking demand for higher yield assets. The pair also moved up after unemployment levels in Japan remained unchanged at 4.9% underscoring an uneven economic recovery that has yet to end deflation and industrial production fell 0.9% after a 2.7% increase in the previous month with policy makers blaming it on reaction to January’s gain and China’s Lunar New Year holiday slowing exports to Japanese markets. The reports highlight the challenges for BOJ policy makers, who have said economic growth has matched or exceeded their projections even as consumer prices keep falling. Without clearer evidence that the recovery is faltering, the central bank may next week hold off on any further expansion in its liquidity injections.

AUDUSD carried yesterday’s bullish momentum on expectations accelerating economic growth will prompt the RBA to raise interest rates. NZDUSD traded near its strongest in more than a week after a government report showed home-building approvals increased 5.9% (expectation 2%) in February for the first time in three months adding to signs residential construction will help buoy economic growth this year and spur the RBNZ to raise its benchmark interest rate. NZDUSD traded at 0.7095 while AUDUSD traded at 0.9172 rising 1.5% the most since Feb. 16. Declines in AUDUSD were limited before reports tomorrow forecast to show retail sales gained 0.3% in February and building approvals rose 2.1%. RBA said its policy actions took into account that home-loan rates have risen more than its benchmark interest rate, suggesting fewer increases are needed to return borrowing costs to normal levels.

The EURUSD traded near a one-week low as signs the global economy is improving damped demand for the USD as a refuge. Despite the enhanced figures, the EURUSD tipped lower and pulled back from the high to hold around 1.3475, and the lack of momentum to cross back above the 20-Day SMA at 1.3584 could keep the pair within the narrow range carried over from the previous week as investors weigh the prospects for future policy. After positive consumer and business confidence figures, investors’ focus will now shift to Wednesdays release of EU CPI for March which are expected to point to an upside surprise in the final reading. ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said that the ECB is currently debating exit strategies and does not see any problem with the EU aid or the involvement of the IMF in the Greek crisis. Nowotny also added that the EU deal on Greece looks positive thus giving a much needed boost to the EURUSD.

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